An analysis of the effects of demographic and epidemiological transitions of health expenditure in Namibia
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Date
2017
Authors
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Publisher
University of Namibia
Abstract
Health expenditures have been on the rise in most countries including Namibia. Findings from studies that analyse the effects of demographic and epidemiological health outcomes on health expenditure can be used to determine if sufficient resources are being spent on health care, if they are appropriately allocated, and if not, how they could be re-allocated to achieve more value-for-money and bring about significant improvements in health outcomes. The study analysed effects of demographic and
epidemiological health outcomes (infant mortality rate, life expectancy, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis with the control variable GDP) on health expenditure in Namibia during the period 1990 to 2014. The results from the study indicate that total health expenditure (% of GDP) is integrated of order one, I(1) and cointegrated with all the other explanatory variables. Subsequently, cointegration analysis and VECM were employed to detect possible long run and short run relationships. The results from the
study indicate that a long run relationship exists between the health outcomes and health expenditure. From the error correction model, only GDP was found to be significant to health expenditure. This finding is an indication that more needs to be done to improve health outcomes. Life expectancy, tuberculosis and GDP showed a positive relationship with health expenditure, whilst infant mortality and HIV were negative. Health outcomes such as HIV and infant mortality were insignificant, which is an indication that resources are not sufficiently spent on health outcomes that can be
improved. Subsequently, policy recommendations from the study imply that certain strategies need to be put in place for appropriate allocation of resources and attention should be shifted to health outcomes that can be significantly improved with higher spending in order to allocate resources efficiently and cut costs.
Description
A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science Economics
Keywords
Demographic transitions, Epidemiological transitions