Doctoral Degrees (DE)

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    Examination of the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the Namibian economy
    (University of Namibia, 2023) Mabuku, Mubusisi Mac Beath
    This Dissertation is structured on three stand-alone objectives which investigated the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the Namibian economy between 1980 and 2018. Firstly, the study estimated the dynamic effects of fiscal policy shocks through the SVAR approach. IRFs results reveal that a positive spending shock immediately increases output and interest rates while decreasing inflation. A positive tax revenue shock increases inflation two years after impact while decreasing interest rates at impact. Secondly, the effects of external shocks were examined through the VAR technique. IRFs show that global output shock positively affects domestic output growth and interest rate, whereas the impact on inflation is negative immediately. A positive US monetary policy shock raises domestic interest rates and inflation while simultaneously exerting a negative influence on domestic economic growth. A positive oil price shock in the first period yields a decline in domestic GDP growth while raising the interest rate, albeit marginally. The impact on inflation is muted in the first year though it is negative beyond the second period. FEVDs reflect that domestic real GDP growth is significantly influenced by global output shocks whereas variations on both interest rate and inflation are explained largely by US monetary policy shock. Thirdly, it investigated the impacts of mineral commodity (copper and uranium) price shocks (positive and negative changes) on Namibia’s business cycles (real GDP). To determine cointegration and presence of asymmetric effects, a new stepwise-least squares NARDL model was adopted. Outcomes reveal a long-run cointegration among real GDP, commodity prices, investment and exports shares of GDP. Moreover, the study unveiled that both copper and uranium prices have asymmetric impacts on Namibia’s business cycle. Positive changes for both commodity prices have the greatest impact on real GDP than negative variations. ii The study recommends the following: first, to spur sustainable economic growth, thereby significantly contributing towards the achievement of the country’s socio economic development, expansionary fiscal policy especially increasing public (productive) spending is recommended. Pursuance of counter-cyclical fiscal policy is commended specifically during low-growth periods to smoothen the business cycle. Second, increased integration with the global economy and industrialisation/diversification are recommended to ensure output growth while simultaneously cushioning the economy from external shocks and serving as a buffer against volatile commodity prices. Third, to mitigate fluctuations from external shocks, robust macroeconomic policy intervention is strongly recommended
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    Dynamic interaction between macroeconomic indicators and asset markets in Namibia
    (University of Namibia, 2021) Kalumbu, Sakaria Angula
    The researcher examined the dynamic interaction between macroeconomic indicators and the asset markets in Namibia between 1995 and 2018. The study aimed at addressing four specific objectives. Firstly, the study gives an overview of the macroeconomic indicators in Namibia, the asset market’s evolution and the Namibian financial market. Secondly, the study analyses the relationship between the stock market and the macroeconomic indicators in Namibia. The stock market was tested for volatility using the ARCH/GARCH tests. The ARDL model together with the ECM model was used to assess the nature of the relationship between the stock market and the macroeconomic indicators in Namibia. The results showed that the Namibian stock market was not volatile. The results also confirmed a short and long-run relationship between the Namibian stock market and the macroeconomic indicators, seen especially through real exchange rates. Furthermore, a unidirectional causal relationship between the stock market and the macroeconomic indicators was revealed. Thirdly, the study investigated the relationship between the foreign exchange market and the macroeconomic indicators in Namibia. The ARCH/GARCH, the TGARCH and the EGARCH tests confirmed volatility in the foreign exchange market. The ECM test indicated that the volatility in the Namibian foreign exchange market can be explained by the macroeconomic indicators in Namibia. Additionally, the ECM test indicated that there was indeed a relationship between the foreign exchange market and the macroeconomic indicators in Namibia. The fourth objective tested the relationship between the housing market and the macroeconomic indicators in Namibia. The SVAR test confirmed the relationship between the housing market and macroeconomic indicators in Namibia. The results indicated that the housing market responded to shocks in the macroeconomic indicators in Namibia. Similarly, although the housing market explained most of its innovations, the macroeconomic indicators contributed to fluctuations in the housing market as well. The Granger Causality Test indicated that there was a unidirectional causal relationship between the housing market and the macroeconomic indicators in Namibia. Monetary policy expansion was recommended to promote macroeconomic objectives through the Namibian stock market and the Namibian foreign exchange. Fiscal policy will be appropriate in dealing with the volatilities in the foreign exchange market. Monetary policy contraction was recommended to promote the housing market through credit availability.
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    Währungspolitische Optionen für Namibia
    (1986) Tjingaete, Fanuel
    None provided. The following is taken from the author's Introductory overview: