2023-12-04T23:08:37Zhttps://repository.unam.edu.na/oai/requestoai:repository.unam.edu.na:11070/4342023-11-15T14:33:30Zcom_11070_3527com_11070_3313com_11070_3305col_11070_98
An analysis of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in Namibia
Shipanga, Eden T.
Foreign exchange
Foreign exchange rates
Exports Namibia
a theses submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Economics
Abstract provided by author
In the area of international trade, studies have examined whether increases in exchange-rate volatility affect the trade flows of Less Developed Countries LDCs. The aim of this study is to investigate empirically the impact of exchange-rate volatility on the export flows of Namibia as one of the developing countries over the period 1998 - 2008. These are achieved by means of utilizing quarterly data of exchange rate and the trade flow of real exports of Namibia for the period 1998 - 2008
During the stipulated time period, Namibia had experienced tremendous volatility in its exchange rate. Therefore, an assessment of the economic performance of the Namibian exports over the period 1998 - 2008 had been used to conclude that the price of the Namibian dollar (N$) is important to its future economic performances
The econometric analysis was employed to exploit the theory of cointegration, given the obvious non-stationarity of the time series. The study used Engle-Granger two step procedures. Three measures of exchange rate volatilities were used and produced mixed results. The mean adjusted relative change (V) as a measure of exchange rate volatility indicated positive and insignificant impact on real exports of Namibia. The moving average standard deviation (MASD) as a measure of exchange rate volatility produced a negative insignificant impact of exchange rate volatility on real exports of Namibia. The last measure of exchange rate volatility was the general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), which indicated a positive and significant impact of exchange rate volatility on Namibia's real exports. These results suggest that Namibia should start exploring possibility of macro-economic policy independence and be involved in the determination of exchange rate within the CMA framework.
In the area of international trade, studies have examined whether increases in exchange-rate volatility affect the trade flows of Less Developed Countries LDCs. The aim of this study is to investigate empirically the impact of exchange-rate volatility on the export flows of Namibia as one of the developing countries over the period 1998 - 2008. These are achieved by means of utilizing quarterly data of exchange rate and the trade flow of real exports of Namibia for the period 1998 - 2008
During the stipulated time period, Namibia had experienced tremendous volatility in its exchange rate. Therefore, an assessment of the economic performance of the Namibian exports over the period 1998 - 2008 had been used to conclude that the price of the Namibian dollar (N$) is important to its future economic performances
The econometric analysis was employed to exploit the theory of cointegration, given the obvious non-stationarity of the time series. The study used Engle-Granger two step procedures. Three measures of exchange rate volatilities were used and produced mixed results. The mean adjusted relative change (V) as a measure of exchange rate volatility indicated positive and insignificant impact on real exports of Namibia. The moving average standard deviation (MASD) as a measure of exchange rate volatility produced a negative insignificant impact of exchange rate volatility on real exports of Namibia. The last measure of exchange rate volatility was the general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), which indicated a positive and significant impact of exchange rate volatility on Namibia's real exports. These results suggest that Namibia should start exploring possibility of macro-economic policy independence and be involved in the determination of exchange rate within the CMA framework.
Windhoek
Namibia
University of Namibia
Master of Science in Economics
Successfully Downloaded file :http://wwwisis.unam.na/theses/shipanga2009.pdf
2014-02-07T14:08:07Z
2014-02-07T14:08:07Z
2009
Thesis
http://hdl.handle.net/11070/434
F004-199299999999999
eng
vi, 54 p
abstracts/shipanga2009abs.pdf
http://wwwisis.unam.na/theses/shipanga2009.pdf