A statistical analysis of factors influencing first teenage pregnancy in Namibia
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Date
2025
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University of Namibia
Abstract
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that about 21 million girls aged
15-19 years in developing countries became pregnant in 2019. In Namibia
Teenage Pregnancy has been a national concern because of the implications to
education attainment and individual socio-economic development. The 2013
Namibia Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) indicated that 19% of women
aged 15-19 had begun childbearing which represented a 4% increase in teenage
pregnancies since 2006.
This study aimed to identify factors associated with teenage pregnancy in Namibia.
Specifically, the study also aimed to describe the regional variation of teenage
pregnancy in Namibia; and to assess the influence of socio-demographic and
behavioural factors on teenage pregnancy. The study was mainly quantitative and
based on secondary analysis of data. The target population was all female
teenagers aged 15-19 and the main source of data were the 1992, 2000, 2006 and
2013 NDHS. The methods of analysis used were descriptive, bivariate, binary
logistic regression model and cox proportional hazards model. Regional variations
was used to examine the trend and extent of teenage pregnancy. Descriptive and
Chi-square tests were performed to highlight the prevalence and regional
variations of teenage pregnancy, while the binary logistic regression was used to
estimate the probability of experiencing teenage pregnancy taking into account
socio-economic and demographic factors. The Cox Proportional Hazards model
was further used to model the survival time to first pregnancy amongst teenagers
with different background characteristics.
Overall the study revealed regional variations of teenage pregnancy whereby
Kavango region recorded the highest prevalence across all the years whilst Hardap
region recorded the lowest prevalence across all the years. The results also showed
that age of respondent, age at first intercourse, education, current contraceptive
method, total children ever born, relationship of last sexual partner, employment
status, marital status, region and place of residence were significantly associated
with teenage pregnancy. Furthermore, the results also revealed that teenagers had
a survival chance of experiencing their first birth at 17 years.
This study concluded that a number of socio-economic and demographic factors
were associated with teenage pregnancy in Namibia and recommended that
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adolescent friendly services at hospitals and clinics should be strengthened and
teenagers should be given relevant information on contraceptives to make
appropriate and informed decisions on contraceptive usage. The life skills
curriculum for the Junior and Secondary learners should also be improved to
include topics relating to awareness and prevention of teenage pregnancy. There
is also need for robust awareness campaigns on prevention of teenage pregnancy
targeted to teenagers in more affected regions such as in Kavango and Zambezi
regions
Description
A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Applied Statistics and Demography
Keywords
Teenage pregnancy, Namibia Demographic and Health Survey, Cox Proportional Hazards model, Survival Time, Choropleth maps, Namibia, University of Namibia