Department of Economics

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Browsing Department of Economics by Author "Dembure, Honest"

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    An analysis of the determinants of the banking crises in the Southern African Development Community (SADC)
    (2014) Dembure, Honest
    This study analysed the determinants of banking crises in the SADC region for the period 1985-2011. The probability of a banking crisis was estimated using a multinomial logit model on real GDP growth level, terms of trade, the ratio of private domestic credit to GDP and the ratio of M2 to foreign exchange reserves. The model was estimated for the pooled, non-systemic and systemic crises economies in order to determine if the impact of the determinants differs between systemic and non-systemic crises. This study found that the impact of the determinants differs between systemic and non-systemic crises as well as between one year prior to a crisis and the year when the crisis starts. Real GDP growth rate was found to be the leading indicator of banking crises one year prior to the start of a crisis for the pooled, non-systemic and systemic crises economies. The ratio of private domestic credit to GDP was found to be significant in explaining the start of a banking crisis in a pooled model. As the ratio of domestic credit to private sector to GDP increases by 1 unit, the likelihood of start of a banking crisis is 0.01 percent higher which is in line with theory and findings by other researchers. This finding remained robust for the systemic banking crises economies. However, none of these macro-economic and financial variables were found significant in explaining the start of a non-systemic crisis.
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    Herding behaviour dynamics in the Namibian securities exchange
    (University of Namibia, 2025) Dembure, Honest; Ziramba, E.
    The main purpose of this research was to analyse herding behaviour dynamics in the Namibian Securities Exchange (NSX) for the period 1 st January 2003 to 30th June 2023 using weekly and monthly data series. The time-varying transition probability Markov two-Regime Switching model (MRSM) was used to estimate the equations which is able to capture time-varying phenomenon of herding behaviour. This study employed the cross-sectional absolute standard deviation (CSAD) proposed by Chang, Cheng and Khorana (2000) as the proxy for herding behaviour. The first paper examined the existence of herding behaviour in the NSX as a whole. The static results revealed absence of herding behaviour for the period under review. However, herding behaviour was detected in high volatile regimes after utilising the MRSM which is in line with theory and other previous studies. Thus, management of firms listed on the NSX should improve the flow of information and transparency in terms of disclosure of published financial statements inorder to induce investors’ confidence and reduce herding behaviour. The second paper examined the existence of sectoral herding behaviour in the NSX. The results of the MRSM revealed evidence of herding behaviour for the Industrial and Resource sectors, especially during high volatility regimes. In this regard, it is better to come up with a larger investment portfolio in order to reach the same diversification goal in more volatile state. The third paper examines the influence of variations in South African interest rates and exchange rates on herding behaviour in the NSX. The MRSM produces mixed results regarding the influence of interest rates and exchange rate variations on herding behaviour in the NSX. Herding behaviour is found when all equity stocks are considered, as well as for the sectors save for the Services sector. Results of the changes in interest rates as proxied by the Johannesburg Interbank Average Rate (JIBAR) 3 month yield rate reveal positive (negative) effect on herding behaviour. The exchange rate as proxied by the United States Dollar (USD) to South African Rand (ZAR) is also found to have both positive and negative effect on herding behaviour in the NSX. Furthermore, extreme changes in ZAR appreciation and depreciation also amplified and reduced herding behaviour in the NSX. Thus, coordination and synergy of monetary ii policies between the Republic of Namibia and Republic of South African (RSA) should be strengthened, since changes in interest rates and exchange rates in South Africa influence herding behaviour in the NSX