UNAM Repository :: Browsing by Author "Nyambe, Jacob M."

Browsing by Author "Nyambe, Jacob M."

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Agriculture and manufacturing sector growth in Namibia during the period 1981 to 2012: A granger causality test
(2014) Siboleka, Milner; Nyambe, Jacob M.; Osterkamp, Rigmar
Namibia became independent in 1990. Since then, the democratic government has pursued various development policy tools to empower Namibians economically. The 4th National Development Plan identified four strategic economic growth enhancing activities, namely agriculture, manufacturing, logistics and tourism. Agriculture remains the largest employer while manufacturing, logistics and tourism are growing, but slowly. This paper is premised on investigating whether or not there is a causal and long term relationship between agriculture and manufacturing sector growth over the period 1981-2012. Ascertaining the direction of the relationship is part of the objectives. Analytical methods that were used include unit root, correlation test and a Granger Causality model. With the use of time series data, the results confirmed stationarity of the data. With 31 observations, no causal relationships were established between agriculture and manufacturing in Namibia. Appropriate policy interventions are required to influence how the two sectors should benefit from each other. Such holds potential for both sustained employment creation opportunities and economic growth in Namibia.
Analysing the exchange rate volatility relative to trade balance: The case of SACU countries
(2020) Haansende, Christine M.; Nyambe, Jacob M.
The term exchange rate volatility is widely used in the financial market. The exchange rate is determined in the foreign exchange market, which is said to be the largest market in the world and it trades in financial assets. The main focus of this study is to analyse the nature of the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in the selected member states of the SACU region in which the selected countries are Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and South Africa. This study uses time series data from the period of 1986 to 2016. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, the impulse response functions and variance decompositions are used in the analysis. Results show that there is a short-run relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade balance. It was found that there is a positive and negative impact between these two variables, with high volatility. Furthermore, this study recommends all Central Banks in the SACU region to intervene in order to mitigate exchange rate volatility.
An analysis of the effectiveness of inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa
(2019) Makuvaza, Leonard; Nyambe, Jacob M.; Sheefeni, Johannes P.
This study is premised on investigating the effectiveness of inflation targeting in South Africa. The methods of analysis include the Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), the unit root test and cointegration test. The analysis was conducted with the use of EViews version 9. The findings from the study revealed that the response of inflation is not consistent with the Taylor rule hence increases in the repo rate meant to reduce inflation actually increase the inflationary pressures in the economy. This is due to the composition of the Consumer Price Index. Housing constitutes the largest weight on the CPI hence this has an impact on how the Repo rate affects inflation. The autoregression model of inflation showed that the sum of the coefficients is less than one (0.965) showing that inflation targeting has effectively reduced the persistence of inflation in South Africa. Thus monetary framework in South Africa seems to be effective and should thus be advanced for wider economic benefit.
Analyzing the agricultural livelihood strategic components in the Zambezi region, Namibia
(2018) Nyambe, Jacob M.; Belete, A.
While urban dwelling is increasingly becoming common across the world, in Namibia, the population settlement pattern is skewed towards rural areas and so is the case for the Zambezi region. The main livelihood strategy is agriculture, which is subsistence in nature and practiced on communal land. This paper investigates changes in the agricultural livelihood strategy in the rural Zambezi. The work is premised around the hypothesis that the agricultural livelihood strategy has improved since 2002 to 2008. Parametric sampling approach in the form of stratified sampling technique based on environmental systems of being flood prone was used to yield a sample size of 253 respondents. SPSS was used in analyzing the data and in the process conventional descriptive statistics and a Chi-Square method were applied. The results show that households with members who were between 5 to 6 in number owned more land than households with more or few members. The majority of respondents are between the ages 36 to 60 years of age. Of the total respondents, 61% were married. The majority of respondents in the category of those with no education at all making up 35% are women. At Junior and Secondary education levels, women dominate men. Male respondents (at 5%) slightly outclass women respondents in terms of having attended tertiary education. Furthermore, the findings proved otherwise in favour of the alternative hypothesis that changes to the livelihoods have occurred but in an adverse manner. The declining livestock numbers from 53% to 47% of the total cattle numbers and crop harvests among the marginalized households require some long-term policy interventions. Introducing small irrigation projects for rural farming households holds potential for increased crop outputs when there is inadequate rainfall. Other than opting for sustainable livelihoods, anything less is unlikely to be inappropriate for a rural farming household in the Zambezi region.
Assessing climate risk to improve incomes of rural farming households in the Caprivi region, Namibia
(2013) Nyambe, Jacob M.; Belete, A.
While the scientific world blames the severity of climate risk factors on climate change, the assessment of its effects on a rural household remains understudied. The objective of this study is to assess climate risk factors on rural households that practices small-scale agriculture with the aim of improving the incomes of farming households. The paper used cross-sectional data from a sample of 253 respondents who represented households that were based in the flood prone areas of the Caprivi region. Invoking a multivariate regression model revealed that climate risk factors especially flood exacerbates the opportunity cost for obtaining a good harvest and thus exposed farming households to income risk and food insecurity. In view of these findings, old age pension and retirement annuities, the value of livestock and that of food aid proved vital to the income and food security needs of rural households in the study area. Investing in early warning systems and publicizing likely climate risk scenarios may be helpful to rural households in preparing to secure their income sources and thus reducing chances of hunger.
Assessment of factors to receiving food aid in the Caprivi region of Namibia: A factor analysis approach
(Academic Journals, 2012) Nyambe, Jacob M.; Belete, A.
Now than ever before, rural communities in the Caprivi region of Namibia are relying more on food aid. This shows that something has gone wrong with their sources of livelihood. This paper seeks to reveal the factors that predispose one to receive food aid. A sample size of 253 respondents was randomly selected from Kabbe, Katima Rural and Linyanti Constituencies. The three constituencies constitute the flood plains. Factor analysis was used to empirically identify patterns of relationships among observed factors. The results obtained show that five factor components, namely, capacity to farm, climate risk awareness, household economic status, past economic opportunities, and household labour with eigenvalues of ≥ 1 are invaluable to eligibility to food aid. These factors have proven to be responsible for about 68% of the total variance and are thus, vital for predisposing rural households to receiving food aid in the study area. By addressing and taking measures on the variables of the factor components that expose households to food aid, rural households in the study area would most likely stay away from relying on food aid.
Determinants of farmers’ decisions to cultivate crops in the Caprivi region of Namibia: A logistics analysis
(2012) Nyambe, Jacob M.; Belete, A.
Annually, rural farmers in the Caprivi region are faced with making difficult choices of whether or not to cultivate their crop fields. The choice farmers make is influenced by the presence of wild animals, climate risk factors, and prospects of future food aid-rollouts. This study investigates key identified determinants to rural farmers’ decisions to cultivate their crop fields amidst the three mentioned influencers. Using a structured questionnaire, 253 respondents were interviewed on a face to face basis. Random sampling was used in selecting the respondents. The respondents resided in the flood plains where they had access to food aid for a period of 5 years. The central livelihood strategy for the respondents is agriculture. A logistics model was used to analyze the data. The results revealed that the household food bill, age of the head of the household, and the value and availability of food aid were essential determinants of a rural farmer’s decision to cultivate his/her crop field. It also came out that rolling out food aid to rural farmers for a period of ≤ 5 years has little effect on their crop production commitments. A longer period may become a disincentive to crop farming in favor of food aid.
The effectiveness of transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in Sierra Leone
(2019) Lavally, Mohamed; Nyambe, Jacob M.
Studies on the effectiveness of transmission mechanisms of monetary policy are crucial for an economy. It is essential to understand how effective are the channels of monetary transmission in directing economic activities in Sierra Leone. In this case, particular focus is on the interest rate, exchange rate, and credit channels. The analytical methods used are unit root tests, cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse responses and variance decomposition. Central to this investigation is the use of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach to estimate time series annual data from 1980 to 2012. The cointegration test result revealed that cointegration exists. The Granger causality test showed that gross capital formation Granger causes exchange rate and real interest rate. The impulse response function showed that output responded positively to monetary shocks, as interest rate increased. For exchange rate and private domestic credit, output showed that even in the long run, the effects of the shocks might not be transitory in order to converge towards a steady state. The variance decomposition indicated that fluctuations in gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) were attributed to itself. While the total contribution of the real interest rate (RIR) and exchange rate (ER) was relatively insignificant. The error forecast of RIR was attributed by itself with an insignificant contribution of GDPPC and none by ER and private domestic credit (PDC). Fluctuations in forecasting ER were greatly attributed to itself and trivial contributions by the other variables. As the trend fell, there was a slight increase in the contribution of the other variables. The results provided evidence of ineffective channels in the Sierra Leone economy.
Illicit financial flows, theft and gold smuggling in Africa
(2019) Grynberg, Roman; Nyambe, Jacob M.; Singopo, Fwasa
The article reviews recent research and controversies surrounding the quantification of illicit financial flows (IFF) in the gold mining sector in Africa. It is argued that the methodology and data used in the quantification of the most frequently analysed technique, i.e., export undervaluation, is flawed not only because of the recognized weakness of the international trade data, but also because it focuses only on one aspect of IFF, and does not attempt to address issues pertaining to actual under measurement or misspecification of volumes. It is argued that estimates of tax evasion activities can only be determined through forensic economic and accounting techniques, and not through macro-economic or trade data. The last section considers the increased evidence of gold smuggling to the UAE from various African countries, some of which produce no gold of any significance, but appear to export in very large volumes; and at unit import values well below world market prices.
Investigating the determinants of foreign direct investments in Namibia
(2016) Dembo, Jones S.; Nyambe, Jacob M.
Foreign direct investments are a challenge to attract, good to host and worse to see leaving. It is in line with this view that an investigation of the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Namibia was launched through this study. Data points used are for 1984 to 2014. The unit root, cointegration test and the bounds testing approach based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag framework were all employed. As a consequence to the outcome, the Error Correction Model became necessary and was used. The short run and long run scenarios were captured and yielded that in the short run, a depreciation of the Namibian dollar was found to positively impact on the receipts of FDI. Inflation and GDP growth were found to impact positively on FDI in the short and long run scenarios. Though statistically insignificant, population growth was found to be a positive driver while exchange rate was negatively related to FDI in a short-run. An existence of a long run relationship among the variables was also confirmed. As for the long run, population growth was negatively impacting on the attraction of FDI. With the Namibian dollar pegged to the South African Rand at 1:1, inflation was seen to have a positive impact on FDI in both periods. A positive sign for inflation is not necessarily a doubtful finding in the short-run period, considering that the opposite of it can be serious on the economy. Therefore, the government should use inflation targeting policies and other macroeconomic measures that are suitable to the needs of the country. Appropriate fiscal and monetary measures are needed for stimulating economic growth at a rate that surpasses the rate of population growth, because due to the resultant effect of a high population on FDI in the long run and subsequently on economic growth.
Investigating the impact of FDI on economic growth in Zambia: 1980-2012
(2015) Mawila, Eugene; Nyambe, Jacob M.
This study was conceived to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Zambia. Data used was obtained from the World Bank’s world development indicators for the period 1980 to 2012. A unit root test was used to determine whether or not the data was stationary. The Johansen cointegration test was then used to test for cointegration. Additionally the Granger causality procedure was used to test the direction of causality between foreign direct investment and economic growth. It was revealed that all the independent variables were non-stationary in level form but were all found to be stationary after first differencing them. Further, the variables were integrated of order one, I (1) and also that there existed a long run relationship among the variables for the period 1980 to 2012. In the same manner, the results showed that FDI does not granger cause economic growth in Zambia . Therefore, unless the Government of the Republic of Zambia considers reforming its existing policies, foreign direct investments will not serve as the prelude for desired economic growth.
Is there a casual relationship between lending interest rate and credit availability to households in Namibia?
(2015) Kalumbu, Sakaria A.; Nyambe, Jacob M.
This study purposed to answer the question of whether or not there exist a causal relationship between the lending interest rate and credit volume available to households in Namibia. Analytical methods of unit root, Johansen cointegration, Granger-causality and the impulse response function were all used for estimation. The study period is the year 2000 to 2012 using panel data. Lending rate and credit stock available proved to be significant but with an inexistence of a long-run relationship between them. There is a one directional causal relationship between lending interest rate and credit available to households in Namibia which runs from credit availability to lending interest rate. Having also found a positive relationship between credit availability and lending interest rate in Namibia, lending rate should be sustained at a slightly higher level in order for the economy to keep prices stable.
Macroeconomic determinats of commercial banks' liquidity in Namibia
(2016) Sheefeni, Johannes P.; Nyambe, Jacob M.
Searching for new ways remains a primary concern among scholars. In this paper the macroeconomic determinants of commercial banks’ liquidity in Namibia were considered and analysed. The unit root, bound test for cointegration and error correction model were employed using quarterly data covering the period 2001 to 2014. The results revealed that real gross domestic product is the main determinant of commercial banks’ liquidity in Namibia. It was also found that monetary policy rate is positively related to banks’ liquidity though statistically insignificant. On the contrary, the results revealed a negative relationship between inflation and commercial banks’ liquidity
Public debt dynamics and fiscal sustainability in Namibia: An intertemporal budget constraint analysis
(2020) Nyambe, Jacob M.; Kaulihowa, Teresa
The paper examines Namibia’s salient issues of public debt-dynamics and fiscal sustainability from 1980 to 2018. Time series data for the same study period was used. Of interest is the aspect of demystifying the dearth surrounding the trend of increasing public debt in Namibia when it is economically concerning that the existing capacity to mobilise needed resources is inadequate. The inter-temporal budget constraints model was used to examine the various fiscal reaction functions, debt dynamics and fiscal policy adjustment to debt. The study found that the intertemporal budget constraint does not hold for Namibia. This is for the period under review, confirming that no surplus exists or somewhat too little to offset the accumulated debt from the previous period. The fiscal reaction functions are consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint with resounding results for both fiscal reaction and extended fiscal reaction functions. The debt dynamics function exposition is that in the short-run, Namibia’s public debt is unsustainable. The government can address debt and fiscal sustainability issues by adjusting its expenditure through resources-wise matching. While government expenditure-containment amidst a global down turn could be complicated there is scope to design workable approaches for generating needed revenues while seeking to balance up expenditure concerns.
Testing the applicability of a privatization model on state owned enterprises in Namibia
(2018) Kabuku, Astro Katama; Nyambe, Jacob M.
Namibia has several State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) some of which are sustainable while others are state-revenue draining. This study was conceived to explore the factors that lead to success and failure of SOEs in Namibia to attempt to develop a privatisation model that could serve as a pilot model for future privatization efforts within the Namibian context. In Namibia, SOEs are faced with a myriad of challenges ranging from politically motivated appointment of poorly skilled boards, lack of monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, ineffective performance management systems, high remuneration for executives which is not paralleled to productivity of the SOEs, corruption, unsustainable debts, burdensome expenditures, financial mismanagement and poor financial performance. Within the Namibian context, SOEs are classified into four categories, namely regulatory enterprises, service rendering enterprises, general enterprises, and economic and productive enterprises. The economic and productive SOEs were selected by their potential for selfsustainability. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data from 31 respondents who occupied management positions within the various departments from the 12 economic and productive SOEs. An Exploratory Factor Analysis model was applied for analytical purposes using a Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 23. The results of this study have several implications for Namibia in the sense that the privatisation model identified the factors attributable to the private sector as follow: service experience, organisational learning and operational efficiency. The study also identified the following factors with attributes to the public sector: poor corporate governance, low levels of risk management and lack of enterprise sustainability. Reform initiatives in the form of privatisation would, therefore, lead to an improvement in sound corporate governance, improve risk management and enterprise sustainability.
Trade and smuggling of African gold to UAE: The cases of Libya and Sudan
(2019) Grynberg, Roman; Nyambe, Jacob M.; Singopo, Fwasa
The paper examines the trade in gold from two African countries, Libya and Sudan which are according to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) import figures, the two largest gold exporters to the UAE from the African conAnent. In the case of the former almost no gold is mined in Libya and yet it is reported to have exported 81 tonnes in 2016 and Sudan which is the second or third largest gold producer on the conAnent, reportedly exports gold to the UAE, based on 2016 prices at the lowest price of any African gold exporAng country. The paper also considers the role of the UAE in the global gold trade and the need for improved compliance with minimum standards to assure that conflict gold does not find a ready market in Dubai.

Browsing by Author "Nyambe, Jacob M."

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