Examining the asymmetric effects of fish exports on economic growth in Namibia
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Date
2024
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Publisher
University of Namibia
Abstract
The main aim of this study was to investigate the asymmetric effects of fish exports on
economic growth in Namibia. To achieve the main objective, the study used quarterly
data from the 2008Q1 to 2020Q4 and employed the Nonlinear Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (NARDL) Bounds testing approach for cointegration. The Augmented
Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron tests were applied to examine the order of integration
of variables while the vector error correction (VEC) causality technique was used to test
for Granger causality. Suitability of NARDL method was confirmed by unit root test
results which showed mixed order of integration where some variables were stationary
in levels and others were integrated of the first order. Furthermore, the results found
evidence of cointegration among variables under study and rejected the null hypothesis
of no long run asymmetry between economic growth and fish exports. Therefore, this
study presents evidence of long and short run asymmetry between fish exports and
economic growth at 5%. Moreover, study results present evidence of unidirectional
causality from positive of fish exports shocks (FX_POS) to gross domestic product
(GDP) and no evidence of causality from negative shocks of fish exports (FX_NEG) to
growth was observed. In the long run, the results showed that FX_POS positively
impacts growth at 1% significance level while in the short run FX_POS positively
impacts growth at 5%. Also, the second lag of FX_POS positively impacts output at 1%
significant level. At the same time, results showed that FX_NEG has an insignificant
impact on growth in the short and long run.
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In the final analysis, this study posits that fish exports in Namibia can be stimulated by
improving infrastructure and port facilities as well as improving transportation networks
to ensure efficient and timely transportation of fish products from processing centres to
ports
Description
A thesis submitted in fullfilment of the requirements for the degree of master of science in economics
Keywords
Fish exports, Economic growth, Money supply, Granger causality, Integration, Namibia