Modeling stock levels of Malaria rapid diagnostic test kits and nievirapine syrup in Oshana region, Namibia
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Date
2019
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Publisher
University of Namibia
Abstract
Malaria and HIV/AIDS are two most widely spread diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. The co-infection is very common in the region, especially in unstable malaria transmission areas with the prevalence of 29.9 - 40%. In Namibia these two diseases are common in northern eastern regions, which are unstable malaria transmission areas. These two diseases affect poorer segments of the population. Individually and biologically Malaria increases viral load of HIV people. The severity of malaria is more in pregnant women and children as well as people live with HIV. Equity access of malaria diagnostic test kits and NVP syrup is critical in control these two epidemic diseases. Given the nature of current conditions, justification exists for a study to develop and demonstrate a mathematical modeling of estimating stock levels, which can establish parameters to prevent stock-outs of mRDT and NVP syrup. The study adopted a mixed-method design in order to provide a broader perspective of modeling of stock levels in public health facilities, which underpins the delivery of mRDT for testing malaria and NVP syrup for PMTCT. In its quantitative aspect, the study adopted a descriptive approach to acquire data from a period of five years retrospectively, in this case 2012 to 2016 inclusive. Data were mainly obtained from Syspro, DHIS and EDT softwares. The data were analysed using SPSS version 23 software, in which time series analysis was applied to determine forecasted consumption of mRDT and NVP syrup. The correlation coefficient and Binary logistic regression were used to identify factors associated with stock-out of mRDT and NVP syrup. Mathematical models of stock levels were developed and validated. The findings showed that due to seasonal variation and other unforeseen variables, the consumption of mRDT and NVP syrup in public health facilities is increasing every quarter, while delivery lead time being a main factor and predictor of stock out. The model developed found to have predictive accuracy of more than 70% in estimating stock levels. The use of this supply models will curb unnecessary costs due to irregular orders. Furthermore, the model will contribute to the prevention of stock out and diseases control. It is a recommendation that similar models should be developed for other medicines such as anti TB, other ARVs and antihypertensive drugs.
Description
A research submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Public Health
Keywords
Malaria, Nevirapine syrup